ANALYSIS FROM THE EAST-WEST CENTER - July

2002

The following are new titles by East-West Center staff. Ordering information and abstracts of the publications appear after the listing of titles.

Managing Asia Pacific’s Energy Dependence on the Middle East: Is There a Role for Central Asia? by Kang Wu and Fereidun Fesharaki. Asia Pacific Issues, No. 60. June 2002.

Asia Pacific Security Outlook 2002, edited by Christopher A. McNally and Charles E. Morrison. 2002.

The Challenge of Post-demographic Transition: Implications for the Global Economy, edited by Lee-Jay Cho. East Asian Economic Perspectives, Volume 13, Special Issue 2 (March 2002).

The Future of Environmental Institutions in Asia, by David S. McCauley. Asian Environment Outlook, Stock No. 060801. November 2001.

Greenhouse Gas Market Perspectives: Trade and Investment Implications of the Climate Change Regime (Recent Research on Institutional and Economic Aspects of Carbon Trading), prepared by Malik Amin Aslam, Jos Cozijnsen, Svetlana Morozova and Marc Stuart, and Richard B. Stewart and Philippe Sands, with commentaries by Lucas Assunção and Bernhard Raberger, Youba Sokona, Farhana Yamin, and ZhongXiang Zhang. 2001.

Managing Asia Pacific’s Energy Dependence on the Middle East: Is There a Role for Central Asia? by Kang Wu and Fereidun Fesharaki. AsiaPacific Issues, No. 60. June 2002. 8 pp. Printed hard copy available from the East-West Center for $2.50 plus shipping/handling. Free downloadable PDF file located at http://www.EastWestCenter.org/stored/pdfs/api060.pdf

The Middle East is Asia Pacific’s largest energy supplier, satisfying a demand for oil that must keep pace with the region’s continued economic growth. This dependence on the Middle East has caused Asia Pacific to join the United States and other Western nations in the hunt for alternative suppliers. Central Asia, located between the Middle East and Asia Pacific and already an oil and gas exporter, is an attractive possibility. With energy production projected to rise rapidly over the next decade, Central Asia is poised to become a major player in the world energy market. But the land-locked region’s options for transporting oil and gas to Asia Pacific markets are limited and problematic. Passage via pipeline east through China presents construction challenges; south through Iran, or through India and Pakistan via Afghanistan, is fraught with political difficulties. Not until geopolitics become more favorable to the south-bound options, or technologies make the China route possible, will Asia Pacific be able to tap the energy resources of Central Asia.

Asia Pacific Security Outlook 2002, edited by Christopher A. McNally and Charles E. Morrison. Tokyo: Japan Center for International Exchange, 2002. 198 pp. Paper, $18.00. Available worldwide outside Japan from Brookings Institution Press, http://www.brookings.org, (800)275-1447 / (202)797-6258.

Asia Pacific security trends are being heavily affected by the still unfolding impact of U.S.-led efforts to combat international terrorism. Triggered by the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, in the United States, these efforts are altering major power relationships and increasing concerns over terrorism, particularly in Southeast Asia. The aftermath of September 11 has also caused new tensions between India and Pakistan and accelerated the world economic downturn, hurting many Asia Pacific countries. September 11, however, did not change several of the fundamental issues affecting the regional security landscape. These include sensitivities in U.S.-China relations and in the Taiwan Strait, the evolving regional role of Japan, controversy over the George W. Bush administration’s pursuit of missile defense, instability in Indonesia, and the situation on the Korean peninsula, which has been affected by the stalling of the North-South and U.S.-North Korean dialogues. These issues and their implications are highlighted in this edition of the Asia Pacific Security Outlook.

The Outlook presents national perceptions of regional security, key defense issues, and the contributions to regional and global security of twenty of the twenty-three member countries of the ASEAN Regional Forum and is unique in utilizing a multinational team of security specialists to provide individual country reports, enabling readers to compare the views and defense policies of each state. It is written for general audiences and security experts alike.

The Challenge of Post-demographic Transition: Implications for the Global Economy, edited by Lee-Jay Cho. East Asian Economic Perspectives, Volume 13, Special Issue 2 (March 2002). Kitakyushu, Japan: The International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development. ii, 105 pp. Paper, $6.40 / ¥800. Available from The International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development, Kitakyushu, office@icsead.or.jp.

As we move into the twenty-first century, we look back at the major changes in the demographic and economic map of the world during the last half-century and wonder what is in store for us in the first half of the next century. We have seen some dramatic changes in the regional pattern of economic growth and primacy associated with a number of factors, including demographic changes. In what ways do demographic factors matter in sustaining long-term economic growth and stability? The relevant variables, individually or in varying combinations, are size, composition, age structure, quality, and distribution, along with growth in terms of fertility and mortality and internal and international migration.

With the increasing force of economic globalization and regionalization, accompanied by the evolution of new institutional arrangements, how important are the characteristics of population within the national boundaries and how important will they be in the future? For example, can Japan sustain its regional economic primacy with an aging and declining population in the twenty-first century? If, hypothetically, China takes over the economic primacy in the region, will it do so because of demographic factors? Can an aging economy be rejuvenated by a demographically aging society? Without massive geographic mobility of population across national or regional boundaries, there is a big question mark on the sustainability of current economic growth and primacy in the industrialized regions of the world.

The Future of Environmental Institutions in Asia, by David S. McCauley. Asian Environment Outlook, Stock No. 060801. Manila: Asian Development Bank, November 2001. vii, 27 pp. Paper. Available from the Asian Development Bank, http://www.adb.org/Publications/default.asp

Considerable investment has been made in establishing and strengthening national environmental management institutions in Asia over the past two decades. This has resulted in the creation of cabinet-level environmental bodies in most countries of the region. Particular attention is given by these agencies to assessing and mitigating the environmental impacts of government-sponsored development projects and industrial production. During this same period, there has been an increase in public awareness of the environmental dimensions of economic development.

The focus on strengthening national environmental agencies has resulted in relatively less attention being given to other important institutions affecting environmental management in Asia. These include planning authorities, sectoral development agencies, transnational or subnational environmental or development bodies, legislative and judicial authorities, the media, private sector associations, nongovernment organizations, scientists, and other elements of civil society with a stake in promoting sustainable development.

The establishment of robust, honest, and effective environmental management institutions in Asia will require better capacity and inclusion of a much wider range of bodies than just national environmental authorities. An important element of efforts to strengthen such institutions will be the integration of environmental considerations into the work of agencies responsible for urban and regional planning as well as those promoting key development sectors-such as industry, mining, forestry, water, and transportation. Government entities cannot possibly be successful in promoting sustainable development without the full engagement of all elements of civil society and the transparency and accountability that such collaboration necessitates.

Greenhouse Gas Market Perspectives: Trade and Investment Implications of the Climate Change Regime (Recent Research on Institutional and Economic Aspects of Carbon Trading), prepared by Malik Amin Aslam, Jos Cozijnsen, Svetlana Morozova and Marc Stuart, and Richard B. Stewart and Philippe Sands, with commentaries by Lucas Assunção and Bernhard Raberger, Youba Sokona, Farhana Yamin, and ZhongXiang Zhang. UNCTAD/TED/Misc.9. New York and Geneva: United Nations, 2001. PDF file located at http://www.unctad.org/ghg/Publications/GHG_MktPersp.PDF

This publication explores a new set of issues related to the proper functioning of trading in GHG credits and allowances. It investigates the central issue of a climate policy architecture: the structure and design details that must be confronted in order to implement a feasible plurilateral greenhouse gas emissions trading program. The authors address technical as well as policy issues concerned with maximizing the performance of the Kyoto Protocol’s international trading mechanisms. The issues addressed are:

The operational architecture of carbon trading, including where to assign property rights for carbon and how to distribute permits;

The estimation of emissions permit prices to provide a better understanding of the actual costs of meeting the Kyoto Protocol’s policy targets;

The challenge presented in translating to the international context the accumulated national experience with emissions trading such as legal standards and rules of accountability; and

The challenge of finding incentives to motivate countries with diverse interests to move voluntarily towards the collective goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The papers and post-Hague commentaries contained in this volume are addressed to international climate negotiators and decision makers concerned with establishing an environment for the effective participation of all countries in the climate change regime.

Search the East-West Center website at http://www.EastWestCenter.org/res-rp-asearch.asp for other publications by the East-West Center and its staff. To order the publications referenced above, contact the East-West Center Publication Sales Office at ewcbooks@EastWestCenter.org.

East-West Center Publication Sales Office 1601 East-West Road Honolulu, HI 96848-1601 USA Tel: (808) 944-7145 Fax: (808) 944-7376

Rate this article: 
No votes yet

Add new comment